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Technical Analysis

USDCHF back below its 100 hour MA. Battle near the lows is on.

11-May-2022 19:21:30

Markets remain volatile with the US equities moving up and down (the Dow is higher but the Nasdaq is moving above and below unchanged).

That  volatility  has impacted the forex market as it see's similar up and down price action in the major currency pairs.

For the  USDCHF , in the NY session, the price moved sharply higher after the higher than expected CPI data. However, the run to the upside found sellers near/ahead of the highs seen on Monday and Tuesday between 0.9965 to 0.99743. Those levels are the highest since December 2019.

The subsequent fall in the USDCHF has seen the price tumble back below the 100 hour MA, and return to the earlier European lows near the 38.2% of the last run higher at 0.98728. For the second time today, the buyers leaned against the 38.2% and has seen a bounce.

The USDCHF's move off the low is so far holding below it's 100 hour MA at 0.99046. That 100 hour MA is a short term barometer for the buyers and sellers as is the 38.2%.

Amongst the volatility, a battle is now on between the 100 hour MA at 0.99046 and the 38.2% below at 0.98728. Look for the next shove above or below the aforementioned levels to tilt the bias in the direction of the break.

Although, the inability to move above the highs for the week and fall below the 100 hour MAmake it tempting to call for a top, there is work to do on the downside. Not being able to get below the 38.2% of the move up from last week's low needs to be broken to give sellers some comfort. Absent that, and the fall is nice, but not nice enough to satisfy the "high is in place for now" crowd.

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